US-Close FX Live Report 2026-W32 — every order from the Tokyo-open fade and dollar-beta systems

What this is

This is not a market-forecast article. It is the record of trades we actually placed.

There is one input: how far the US500 index moved on the prior day, measured at the NY 4pm close. Only when that move exceeds ±0.5% do we mechanically run two plays the next day:

1. USDJPY Tokyo-open fade — at 9:00 JST we enter USDJPY against the US move and close at 10:00 JST. One hour of exposure.
2. EURUSD dollar-beta follow — right after the NY 4pm close we enter EURUSD with the US move and close at the next European close (17:00 Berlin). Friday signals are held over the weekend.

There is no take-profit; exits are time-based. The stop is disaster protection only (3–4× ATR). Risk per trade is 0.5% of equity. No chart patterns are used.

In back-testing (2017–2026, ~1,200 trades each) the fade made +0.89 pips/trade after costs (profitable 9 of 10 years; 2021 was the losing year) and the dollar-beta +3.68 pips/trade (7 of 10 years; 2023–2024 were consecutive losing years). The per-trade edge is thin — we say that upfront, which is exactly why the live record is published in full.

Cumulative record

2 closed (1W 1L) · realised -5,775 JPY · total -0.12R · -0.06R per trade

R is profit divided by the amount risked on that trade. We report R because it compares the method itself, independent of account size or denomination.

This week (verification demo account — the canonical record)

This week's record contains 4 trade(s) and 10 skip(s).

The per-trade detail (time, pair, side, entry, stop, exit reason, R multiple, plus the daily decision log) and the reason for every skip are published in our verified Discord channel.

Why it is gated: the detail is the execution record of a real account — the most valuable thing we can hand a reader. We give it to people who opened their account through this site (we only match your account number against our partner ledger; no email, no password). The cumulative record, win/loss split and costs above stay public on this page — we do not show you the wins and hide the losses.

→ See how to open an account and verify

Parallel real-money execution

The same decisions are executed in parallel on a real-money account (XM, USD). A demo-only record cannot answer the obvious objection: "would that actually have filled?"

• Real-money closes: 1 (1W 0L) / 0 open
• Realised P&L: +1.06 USD (+0.27R) The real-money account is independently verified on Myfxbook → View the verified account These figures are not merged into the headline record. The published track record stays on one account — keeping two aggregates would let us show whichever looks better.

How to follow this record

This article regenerates automatically every Monday morning, straight from the ledger. The cumulative record stays public here.

Per-trade detail and the daily measurements are delivered in our verified Discord channel → how to join

What we will say plainly

• This edge was found by exploration. It surfaced from a 72-cell grid search, so a selection-bias discount applies. We would normally run a no-orders shadow phase first; here the operator chose to start live. At 60 closed trades we will run a statistical test (SPRT) and shut the system down if it fails — that outcome will be published here too.
• The per-trade edge is thin (+0.89 pips/trade in back-testing for the fade). A wide spread erases that day's edge, so entries are skipped automatically whenever the live spread exceeds 3× the floor.
• Losing regimes are real: 2021-style low-volatility yen grind for the fade, 2023–2024 for the dollar-beta. We found no way to predict them in advance and disclose them as accepted risk.
• Five consecutive losses trigger an automatic kill switch (per system, per account). Shutdowns get reported here as well.
• The signal threshold is ±0.5%. The headline record comes from a verification demo account (one canonical published track record); the real-money account is reported separately above, never merged in.
• Past results do not guarantee future performance. This is not investment advice.