Economic Calendar Digest: 2026-07-31
Friday, July 31, 2026, wraps up a heavy data week with key inflation and growth releases. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — headlines the session, alongside Eurozone GDP and Canadian monthly GDP. Traders should prepare for elevated volatility in USD, EUR, and CAD pairs during the North American morning.
High-Impact Events Today (★★★)
| Time (UTC) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Affected Pairs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | 🇺🇸 US | Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Jun) | — | — | EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD |
| 12:30 | 🇺🇸 US | Core PCE Price Index (Jun) | — | — | EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD |
| 12:30 | 🇺🇸 US | Personal Income (Jun) | — | — | USD pairs |
| 12:30 | 🇺🇸 US | Personal Spending (Jun) | — | — | USD pairs |
| 09:00 | 🇪🇺 EU | Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q2, flash) | — | — | EUR/USD, EUR/GBP |
| 12:30 | 🇨🇦 CA | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (May) | — | — | USD/CAD, EUR/CAD |
| 23:50 | 🇯🇵 JP | Industrial Production (Jun, prelim) | — | — | USD/JPY, EUR/JPY |
Per-Event Educational Context — English
US PCE Price Index & Core PCE (Jun)
- What it is: The PCE Price Index measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by US consumers. The Core version excludes volatile food and energy components. It is the Federal Reserve's primary inflation gauge for monetary policy decisions.
- Why it matters: PCE data directly influences Fed rate expectations. A higher-than-expected reading typically strengthens the USD as markets price in tighter policy; a lower reading can weaken the USD. Historical reactions often see 30–50 pip moves in EUR/USD within the first 15 minutes.
- Markets to watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, US Treasury yields, gold (XAU/USD)
- Source: Forex TradingCharts Calendar
Eurozone GDP (Q2, flash)
- What it is: The flash estimate of Eurozone Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter of 2026, released by Eurostat. It measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the euro area.
- Why it matters: GDP is the broadest measure of economic health. A contraction or strong miss could reignite recession fears and pressure the EUR. Conversely, a beat supports the single currency. The release often triggers 20–40 pip moves in EUR/USD.
- Markets to watch: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, European stock indices
- Source: Sergey Tereshkin Investor Calendar
Canada GDP (May)
- What it is: Monthly Gross Domestic Product from Statistics Canada, measuring the change in the total value of goods and services produced in Canada.
- Why it matters: Monthly GDP provides a timely read on Canadian economic momentum. A strong print supports the Bank of Canada's hawkish stance and can boost the CAD; a weak print pressures it. USD/CAD typically moves 20–40 pips on the release.
- Markets to watch: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD
- Source: Forex TradingCharts Calendar
Japan Industrial Production (Jun, prelim)
- What it is: Preliminary estimate of Japan's industrial output for June, released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. It measures the change in total production volume of factories, mines, and utilities.
- Why it matters: Industrial production is a key leading indicator for Japan's export-driven economy. A sharp decline signals weakening global demand and can weigh on the JPY. The release often affects USD/JPY by 15–30 pips.
- Markets to watch: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, Nikkei 225
- Source: Forex TradingCharts Calendar
Mid-Impact Events (★★)
| Time (UTC) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 🇩🇪 DE | Import Price Index (Jun) | — | — |
| 06:45 | 🇫🇷 FR | Consumer Spending (Jun) | — | — |
| 07:00 | 🇨🇭 CH | KOF Economic Barometer (Jul) | — | — |
| 09:00 | 🇮🇹 IT | GDP (Q2, flash) | — | — |
| 14:00 | 🇺🇸 US | Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | — | — |
| 14:00 | 🇺🇸 US | Revised UoM 5-year Inflation Expectations (Jul) | — | — |
Trader's Checklist for Today — English
✅ Risk management: PCE and GDP releases can cause sharp, unpredictable moves. Ensure stop-losses are set and position sizes are appropriate for your account. ✅ Spread widening: Expect spreads to widen significantly during the 12:30 UTC data dump (US PCE + Canada GDP simultaneously). Consider using limit orders or waiting for initial volatility to settle. ✅ Review position sizing: With multiple high-impact events in the same minute, correlation risk is elevated. Avoid overexposure to USD, EUR, and CAD pairs simultaneously. ✅ Data dependency: The Fed's next move hinges on today's PCE print. Any deviation from consensus will be amplified by month-end portfolio rebalancing.
Compliance Footer — English
⚠️ Disclaimer: This page summarizes scheduled economic events for educational purposes. We do not predict market direction or recommend trades. Forecasts shown are market consensus from third-party sources. Verify all data with official central bank / statistics agency sources. Trading is risky. This is not investment advice.
Last updated: 2026-07-31 | Sources: Forex TradingCharts, Sergey Tereshkin, FXStreet