Geopolitical Tensions & Trade Wars in 2026: How They're Moving Forex Markets

The 2026 Macro Storm: Why Forex Traders Cannot Afford to Ignore Geopolitics

In the spring of 2026, forex markets are being driven by forces rarely seen in combination: an active Middle East conflict threatening 20% of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a partially de-escalated but still volatile US-China tariff confrontation, and a broader structural shift toward protectionism and "national security priorities" in trade policy. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled "Global Economy in the Shadow of War," projects global growth at just 3.1% in 2026 — below recent outcomes and well under pre-pandemic averages — with global headline inflation expected to rise modestly before resuming its decline in 2027.

For retail forex traders, this environment is simultaneously the most dangerous and the most opportunity-rich in years. Currency pairs that once moved 40–60 pips on a busy NFP day are now capable of moving 200 pips on a single geopolitical headline. This article explains the specific mechanisms at work, maps out which currency pairs are moving and why, delivers concrete risk management tactics, and compares the broker infrastructure you need to trade through it safely.

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How Does the 2026 Middle East Conflict Actually Move Forex Markets?

The outbreak of direct military confrontation in the Middle East in early 2026 acted as a sudden catalyst for risk-off sentiment across global financial markets. The forex market — which processes over $7.5 trillion in daily volume — reacted swiftly and dramatically. Understanding the precise transmission channels helps traders anticipate rather than merely react.

The Oil-Currency Transmission Mechanism

The most direct channel is energy prices. Oil prices surged approximately 30% on a year-to-date basis by early March 2026, driven by fears of supply disruptions from a region central to global hydrocarbon supply. This had asymmetric effects across currency pairs:

• Winners (oil exporters): CAD (Canadian dollar) and NOK (Norwegian krone) are strongly correlated with oil prices. When Middle East tensions threaten global supply, rising oil prices typically benefit these currencies — a counter-intuitive trade for many beginners who reflexively sell everything in a risk-off episode.
• Losers (oil importers): Japan is a net importer of crude oil. In March 2026, the USD/JPY hit a 20-month high near the 160 level, even as both the USD and JPY are conventionally regarded as safe havens. Soaring oil prices offset the yen's safe-haven status as markets priced in a massive trade deficit for Japan. This dynamic illustrates one of the most critical risk management lessons of 2026: never assume historical correlations are permanent.
• Emerging market pressures: For many countries, the combination of currency depreciation and rising import costs created compounding challenges. Governments had to navigate a delicate balance between supporting economic activity and maintaining financial stability.

Safe-Haven Flows and the New Hierarchy

The traditional safe-haven ranking of USD → JPY → CHF has been meaningfully disrupted in 2026. The IMF's April 2026 report models an adverse scenario where a sharper increase in energy prices coupled with rising inflation expectations pushes global growth down to 2.5% and inflation up to 5.4%. In that environment, capital-flight dynamics are more complex than a simple "buy dollars" reflex.

The Swiss franc (CHF) has emerged as the premier safe-haven currency in 2026. Over 2025, the CHF gained almost 13% against the US dollar and extended those gains into 2026, hitting an 11-year high against the greenback. The franc's rise is backed by Switzerland's political neutrality, banking system strength, and low-inflation history — structural factors that become prized during sustained global uncertainty.

The US dollar's safe-haven credentials have been complicated by US fiscal concerns, erratic trade policy, and what Deutsche Bank's head of FX research, George Saravelos, called the dollar's safe-haven status being more "myth" than reality in modern conditions. The dollar index fell 9.37% in 2025 and has continued to soften into 2026.

The Japanese yen remains a safe-haven asset in principle, but its role is complicated by Japan's energy import dependency and the Bank of Japan's policy path. As a net oil importer, Japan faces stagflationary pressures during energy price spikes that directly undermine the yen's defensive appeal — as clearly demonstrated by the USD/JPY spike to the 160 level in March 2026.

Key safe-haven hierarchy for 2026:

Central Banks Caught Between Inflation and Growth

The Middle East conflict introduced an acute policy dilemma for central banks. Rising oil prices contributed to renewed inflation concerns, which in turn affected central bank outlooks. The IMF's reference forecast assumes a 19% increase in energy commodity prices in 2026, pushing global headline inflation to 4.4% — a sharp deviation from the global disinflation trend of recent years. This leaves the Federal Reserve between hawks worried about inflation expectations and doves concerned about the labor market, delaying the rate-cutting cycle and keeping the dollar's interest rate support more nuanced than in pure risk-off episodes.

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How Is the US-China Trade War Still Shaping Currency Markets in 2026?

The US-China tariff confrontation, which at its peak in mid-2025 saw US tariffs on Chinese goods reach 145% and Chinese counter-tariffs reach 125%, underwent a significant de-escalation in May 2025. The US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% while China responded by reducing tariffs on US products to 10%, and both countries established a bilateral economic and trade consultation mechanism. However, trade tensions have not disappeared — they have evolved into a more structural, multipolar fragmentation of global trade.

The CNY: Appreciation Surprise of 2026

One of the most counterintuitive developments in 2026 forex markets has been the Chinese yuan's performance. Year-to-date as of early April 2026, the CNY has been one of the notable outperformers against the USD, gaining approximately 2.3% and easily outperforming most other Asian currencies. This defies the common narrative that trade war escalation always weakens the yuan.

Several factors explain the yuan's resilience:

1. PBOC counter-cyclical factor: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has used its daily fixing mechanism to manage the currency's trajectory, leaning against appreciation pressure in recent months while maintaining overall stability.
2. Current account surplus: China's exports have been off to a strong start in 2026, keeping the current account surplus as a positive structural factor for the yuan.
3. Yield spread dynamics: As the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts, the US-China yield spread began narrowing from early 2025 through early 2026, reducing the incentive for Chinese exporters to keep proceeds offshore.
4. Capital flight risk of sharp devaluation: A rapid devaluation could trigger capital outflows and financial market instability — China saw nearly $700 billion in capital flight in 2015 when it devalued aggressively. The PBoC is acutely aware of this history.

Despite this resilience, the uncertainty around trade policy remains high. JPMorgan Research estimates that IEEPA-based tariff measures account for roughly 61% of the year-to-date increase in US tariffs, amounting to approximately $180 billion annualized. Any judicial ruling, new tariff announcement, or diplomatic breakthrough could move USD/CNH by 200–400 pips within hours.

The Geopolitical Fragmentation Trade

Beyond the bilateral US-China dynamic, Rabobank's 2026 Global Outlook describes a world where "new rules in trade and investment create a complex playing field, with the US as the dominant player and China striving for technological supremacy." This structural fragmentation has several forex implications that traders should monitor continuously:

• Tariff-exposed EM currencies: Asian currencies with high exposure to the Chinese market — including the Singapore dollar (SGD), Malaysian ringgit (MYR), South Korean won (KRW), and Thai baht (THB) — face spillover risk from USD/CNY movements. Historical data shows high 30-week correlation between these pairs and USD/CNY.
• Defense spending and the euro: The IMF notes that scaling up of defense spending prompted by geopolitical tensions could boost short-term economic activity but also bring inflationary pressures. Europe's ramping defense budgets are a structural EUR/USD support factor, all else equal.
• Energy sector as a barometer: The energy sector has been the top-performing sector in 2026 year-to-date, gaining around 40%, driven by the surge in oil prices. This makes energy equity indices and WTI/Brent crude real-time indicators for oil-linked currency pairs.

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What Currency Pairs Should Traders Be Watching in 2026?

With the macro context established, traders need a specific, actionable framework for pair selection. The 2026 geopolitical environment creates distinct opportunities across three trade archetypes.

Archetype 1: The Risk-Off Safe-Haven Trade

When tensions are clearly escalating — airstrikes, naval confrontations, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, major sanctions — the following pairs historically move in predictable directions:

• USD/CAD: Watch for CAD weakness on oil demand fear narratives, but understand the oil supply shock dynamic can flip this trade.
• AUD/USD: Classic risk-off. The Australian dollar drops as the USD climbs, as AUD is a high-beta risk currency closely tied to China's economic health.
• USD/CHF: When the CHF is strengthening as the premier safe haven while the USD is facing fiscal/policy headwinds, this pair can move sharply in either direction.
• EUR/CHF: Rising (CHF strengthening) is a real-time signal that capital is leaving Europe for Switzerland, one of the cleanest measures of geopolitical risk-off sentiment.

Archetype 2: The Oil-Linked Commodity Currency Trade

• USD/CAD and USD/NOK: When Middle East tensions threaten supply, oil prices typically spike, which benefits CAD and NOK. The "buy oil = buy CAD" reflex is well-supported historically.
• USD/JPY short vs. CAD/JPY long: A sophisticated geopolitical pair trade. Japan suffers (net oil importer) while Canada benefits (net oil exporter). CAD/JPY has historically been one of the most directional commodity currency pairs during energy-driven crises.

Archetype 3: The Diplomatic Resolution or De-Escalation Trade

Diplomatic resolution events cause risk assets to rally hard. AUD, EM currencies, and oil-importer currencies (JPY, INR, KRW) see relief. A contrarian "buy the resolution" trade, if entered at the right risk-off extreme, can be highly profitable. The key discipline is position sizing: entering too early costs in continued adverse moves; entering too late misses the bulk of the move.

Geopolitical Currency Pair Framework

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A Trader's Practical Playbook: Risk Management in a High-Volatility Geopolitical Environment

Understanding which pairs move is only half the equation. Surviving — and profiting — in 2026's volatility requires disciplined execution. The following steps constitute a systematic approach to geopolitical forex trading, applicable to both beginners and intermediate traders.

Step 1: Recalibrate Your Leverage for the Environment

In a stable market, 1:50 leverage might feel reasonable. In 2026, a single headline about a drone strike or a Strait of Hormuz closure can move a currency pair 200 pips in seconds. Reducing position size is the simplest way to survive a black-swan event. EU retail clients under CySEC-regulated brokers, such as Trading Point of Financial Instruments Ltd (CySEC license 120/10), are automatically protected by MiFID II leverage caps of 1:30 on major FX pairs — a regulatory safeguard that forces appropriate sizing.

For traders using offshore entities with higher leverage (up to 1:1000 available under FSC Belize-regulated brokers), active self-management of leverage is critical. A useful rule: in active geopolitical periods, never use more than 20% of your maximum permitted leverage.

Step 2: Use Wider Stops With Smaller Positions

Volatility causes price jumps and gapping, particularly at market open on Mondays after weekend developments. Experienced traders use wider stops with smaller positions during high-volatility periods to keep total dollar-risk identical to their normal trading. For example, if your normal EUR/USD trade is 1 standard lot with a 20-pip stop, consider 0.5 lots with a 40-pip stop during active geopolitical periods.

Pip value calculation for EUR/USD (standard lot): 1 pip = $10. A 40-pip stop on 0.5 lots = $200 maximum loss — identical to a 20-pip stop on 1 lot, but with far less chance of being stopped out by normal geopolitical noise.

Step 3: Never Hold Large Unhedged Positions Over the Weekend

Geopolitical developments frequently occur on weekends when markets are closed, leading to significant gaps in asset prices on Monday morning. This is one of the most consistently violated risk management rules among retail traders during active geopolitical periods. When assets that affect currency valuations gap, stop losses can be bypassed, and slippage can be extreme.

Step 4: Monitor Multi-Asset Correlations Simultaneously

Do not just watch the EUR/USD chart. If trading CAD or NOK, follow crude oil prices in real time. If trading JPY, watch US Treasury yields and Japanese trade balance data. Energy prices are the primary driver of currency valuations for many nations, and with volatility fueled by geopolitical tensions, your risk management must incorporate all factors affecting forex prices.

Step 5: Create a Geopolitical Event Calendar Alongside Your Economic Calendar

Standard economic calendars track NFP, CPI, and FOMC. In 2026, traders must overlay a geopolitical event tracker: peace negotiations, UN Security Council votes, OPEC+ emergency meetings, PBoC fixing announcements, and tariff decision dates from the US Trade Representative. Currency pairs moving 1% or more in short periods often signal geopolitical developments not yet widely reported.

Step 6: Select a Broker With Stable Execution During Peak Volatility

This is not a peripheral concern — it is central to your P&L. During the most volatile geopolitical sessions of 2026, some brokers have experienced wider spreads, order rejection, and slippage. For traders who want to execute during high-impact events, execution quality during stress is the critical differentiator. Brokers like XM Group, which maintains a zero-requote, zero-rejection execution policy — including during NFP, FOMC, and CPI releases — check XM official promotions specifically address this need. XM Group has executed over 11.7 billion trades without requotes or rejections, with 99.4% of all trades executed in under one second.

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Broker Comparison: Which Platform Is Built for 2026 Volatility?

Choosing the right broker for geopolitical trading involves five key dimensions: regulatory protection, execution quality during high-volatility events, spread costs, leverage availability by jurisdiction, and platform stability. The table below compares three brokers actively used by retail traders navigating the 2026 environment.

How Do XM Group, Pepperstone, and IC Markets Compare for Geopolitical Traders?

Important note on XM Group's no-deposit bonus: The bonus amount and availability vary by region and entity. Approximately $30 is offered in most eligible regions; availability differs in select Middle East/Southeast Asia markets; the bonus is not available to clients under the CySEC (EU) or ASIC (Australia) entities due to regulatory restrictions. Always verify current terms on XM's official website.

Regulatory context: CySEC-regulated accounts (EU MiFID II framework) provide maximum retail protection: leverage capped at 1:30 on major FX pairs, negative balance protection, mandatory 50% margin close-out, and participation in the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF) providing up to €20,000 per client in case of broker insolvency. Offshore entities (FSC Belize, FSA Seychelles, FSC Mauritius) offer higher leverage but fewer investor protections.

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Step-by-Step: How to Set Up a Geopolitical Forex Watchlist in 2026

The following workflow helps retail traders systemically track the key inputs driving currency moves in 2026, without requiring institutional data infrastructure.

1. Build a core pairs watchlist: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, USD/CNH. These seven pairs capture the full spectrum of 2026's geopolitical dynamics.
2. Add three commodity benchmarks: WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude, and Gold (XAU/USD). These are leading indicators for CAD, NOK, and JPY pairs, and for broad risk sentiment.
3. Set volatility alerts: Configure platform alerts for moves of 0.7% or more in any watchlist pair within a 15-minute window. This threshold has historically preceded major geopolitical news events by 5–20 minutes.
4. Subscribe to real-time geopolitical feeds: Reuters, Bloomberg, and Al-Monitor (for Middle East) provide timely geopolitical alerts. Cross-reference with forex platforms' integrated news feeds.
5. Review the PBoC daily fixing every morning (Beijing time): The USD/CNY fixing at 9:15 AM Beijing time sets the tone for Asian session risk sentiment, especially for AUD, SGD, and KRW pairs.
6. Check the Fed's and ECB's communication calendar weekly: In 2026, central bank communication is as market-moving as economic data, given the ambiguous policy environment created by geopolitical stagflation pressures.
7. Pre-set your weekend risk protocol: Every Friday before market close, reduce all open position sizes by 50% if there are active military operations, active tariff negotiation deadlines, or OPEC meetings scheduled over the weekend.

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FAQ

What is the biggest forex market risk from geopolitical tensions in 2026?

The single biggest risk in 2026 is gap risk — the potential for currency pairs to open Monday morning at a dramatically different price than Friday's close, bypassing stop-loss orders entirely. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, any major escalation in the Middle East, or a surprise tariff announcement over a weekend can move oil-linked and safe-haven currency pairs by 150–400 pips at Sunday market open. The practical mitigation is to reduce position sizes on Fridays, use guaranteed stop-loss orders where available (offered by select brokers for a premium), and maintain overall account leverage well below the maximum permitted level. Avoiding large unhedged weekend positions is one of the most consistently recommended risk management rules for 2026's environment.

How does the US-China trade war specifically affect AUD/USD?

The Australian dollar is one of the most China-sensitive currencies in the G10 FX universe. Australia's export economy is heavily dependent on commodities — particularly iron ore and coal — that flow to China. When US-China trade tensions escalate, two channels hurt AUD: first, slower Chinese economic growth reduces demand for Australian commodities, weakening AUD directly. Second, risk-off sentiment from trade war headlines causes broad EM and commodity currency selling, with AUD typically falling 0.5–1.5% on major escalation events. The trade de-escalation in May 2025 (tariffs lowered to 30%/10%) provided AUD relief, but residual tariff uncertainty at 2026's elevated baseline continues to act as a structural headwind for the pair relative to its pre-2025 trading range.

Why did the Japanese yen weaken during the 2026 Middle East conflict if it is a safe-haven currency?

This is one of the most important lessons of 2026: safe-haven status is not unconditional. Japan imports nearly all of its crude oil — making it one of the world's largest net energy importers. When the Middle East conflict caused oil prices to surge approximately 30% year-to-date by early March 2026, the market began pricing in a significant widening of Japan's trade deficit and current account deterioration. This economic damage outweighed the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal, causing USD/JPY to spike to a 20-month high near 160. The rule for traders: in an oil-price shock scenario, model the current account impact on each safe-haven currency rather than assuming historical flight-to-safety patterns hold unchanged.

What leverage should a retail forex trader use during periods of high geopolitical volatility in 2026?

EU retail traders under CySEC or FCA-regulated brokers are automatically capped at 1:30 on major FX pairs, which is a meaningful safeguard during volatile periods. For traders accessing higher leverage through offshore broker entities, the practical recommendation for 2026's environment is to use no more than 1:10 to 1:20 effective leverage on any open position during active geopolitical events — regardless of the maximum leverage theoretically available. A single headline can move EUR/USD 100 pips in minutes; at 1:100 leverage on a $1,000 account, that would wipe the entire account. Between 70–80% of retail CFD accounts lose money in normal market conditions; that proportion increases during sustained volatility events.

How does XM Group's regulatory structure affect what account options are available to me?

XM Group operates multiple regulated entities, and the entity governing your account depends on your country of residence. EU and EEA residents are served by Trading Point of Financial Instruments Ltd, regulated by CySEC (license number 120/10) under the MiFID II framework — this provides maximum retail protections including 1:30 leverage cap on major FX, negative balance protection, and ICF compensation up to €20,000. Australian residents are served by Trading Point of Financial Instruments Pty Ltd, regulated by ASIC (AFSL 443670). Traders in most other global regions are served by XM Global Limited, regulated by the FSC of Belize (license 000261/106), which permits leverage up to 1:1000 but with fewer regulatory protections. The no-deposit bonus and certain promotional programs are only available under non-EU, non-ASIC entities. Always review the specific terms of the entity governing your account.

Which forex broker is best for scalping during geopolitical news events in 2026?

For traders who scalp around high-impact news — NFP, CPI, central bank decisions, and geopolitical flash points — the key broker criteria are: raw spreads as close to 0 pips as possible, ultra-fast execution with no requotes, and stability during peak liquidity events. For lowest raw spreads on major pairs, IC Markets offers EUR/USD raw spreads averaging approximately 0.02–0.06 pips on its cTrader Raw account, with execution averaging under 40 milliseconds. Pepperstone's Razor account averages approximately 0.10 pips on EUR/USD with fast ECN-style execution, and is regulated by seven jurisdictions including the FCA. XM Group's Zero account provides raw spreads from 0.0 pips with a commission structure, combined with a zero-requote policy that specifically maintains leverage stability during major economic events. The right choice depends on your primary metric: lowest cost (IC Markets), widest platform choice (Pepperstone), or execution consistency during events (XM Group).

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Risk Warning

Trading forex and CFDs involves a significant risk of financial loss. Between 70–80% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with leveraged instruments, and this proportion may be higher during periods of elevated volatility such as those described in this article. Geopolitical events can cause rapid, unpredictable price movements that exceed stop-loss orders, result in margin calls, and lead to losses greater than initial deposits if negative balance protection is not in place. The currency pairs, strategies, and broker conditions discussed in this article are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice if necessary before opening any leveraged trading position. Regulatory protections, leverage caps, and bonus availability vary by jurisdiction and entity — always verify current terms directly with your broker and the relevant regulatory authority.

FAQ

What is the biggest forex market risk from geopolitical tensions in 2026?

The single biggest risk in 2026 is gap risk — the potential for currency pairs to open Monday morning at a dramatically different price than Friday's close, bypassing stop-loss orders. Middle East escalation or surprise tariff announcements over a weekend can move oil-linked and safe-haven currency pairs by 150–400 pips at Sunday market open. Mitigate this by reducing position sizes on Fridays, using guaranteed stop-loss orders where available, and maintaining account leverage well below the maximum permitted level. Avoiding large unhedged weekend positions is one of the most consistently recommended risk management rules for 2026's environment.

How does the US-China trade war specifically affect AUD/USD?

The Australian dollar is one of the most China-sensitive currencies in the G10 FX universe, given Australia's heavy commodity export dependence on China — particularly iron ore and coal. When US-China trade tensions escalate, slower Chinese growth reduces demand for Australian commodities, weakening AUD directly. Simultaneously, risk-off sentiment from trade war headlines causes broad commodity currency selling, with AUD typically falling 0.5–1.5% on major escalation events. The May 2025 de-escalation (tariffs lowered to 30%/10%) provided AUD relief, but elevated baseline tariffs continue to act as a structural headwind.

Why did the Japanese yen weaken during the 2026 Middle East conflict if it is a safe-haven currency?

Safe-haven status is not unconditional. Japan imports nearly all of its crude oil, making it one of the world's largest net energy importers. When the Middle East conflict caused oil prices to surge approximately 30% by early March 2026, markets began pricing in a significant widening of Japan's trade deficit. This economic damage outweighed the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal, causing USD/JPY to spike to a 20-month high near 160. In an oil-price shock scenario, traders must model the current account impact on each safe-haven currency rather than assuming historical flight-to-safety patterns hold unchanged.

What leverage should a retail forex trader use during periods of high geopolitical volatility in 2026?

EU retail traders under CySEC or FCA-regulated brokers are automatically capped at 1:30 on major FX pairs — a meaningful safeguard during volatile periods. For traders accessing higher leverage through offshore entities, the practical recommendation is no more than 1:10 to 1:20 effective leverage during active geopolitical events, regardless of maximum leverage available. A single headline can move EUR/USD 100 pips in minutes. Between 70–80% of retail CFD accounts lose money in normal conditions; that proportion increases during sustained volatility events. Always calibrate position size to your actual risk tolerance, not your maximum permitted leverage.

How does XM Group's regulatory structure affect what account options are available to me?

XM Group operates multiple regulated entities based on your country of residence. EU/EEA residents fall under Trading Point of Financial Instruments Ltd, regulated by CySEC (license 120/10) under MiFID II — providing 1:30 leverage caps, negative balance protection, and ICF compensation up to €20,000. Australian residents fall under Trading Point of Financial Instruments Pty Ltd, regulated by ASIC (AFSL 443670). Most other global traders fall under XM Global Limited, regulated by FSC Belize (license 000261/106), which permits up to 1:1000 leverage but with fewer investor protections. Bonuses and certain promotions are only available under non-EU, non-ASIC entities.

Which forex broker is best for scalping during geopolitical news events in 2026?

For scalping around high-impact news, three brokers stand out. IC Markets offers EUR/USD raw spreads averaging approximately 0.02–0.06 pips on its cTrader Raw account, with execution averaging under 40 milliseconds — best for pure cost efficiency. Pepperstone's Razor account averages approximately 0.10 pips on EUR/USD with ECN-style execution and regulation across seven jurisdictions. XM Group's Zero account provides raw spreads from 0.0 pips with zero requotes and zero rejections during major events. The right choice depends on your priority: lowest cost (IC Markets), widest platform choice (Pepperstone), or event-execution consistency (XM Group).

Sources & Verification

This article was fact-checked on 2026-05-09. Key claims:

• "The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projects global growth at 3.1% in 2026, below recent outcomes and well under pre-pandemic averages." — verified via https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026 on 2026-05-09
• "Oil prices surged approximately 30% year-to-date by early March 2026, driven by fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict." — verified via https://plainforextrading.com/2026/03/geopolitical-shock-and-forex-markets-in-march-2026.html on 2026-05-09
• "USD/JPY hit a 20-month high near the 160 level in March 2026 as soaring oil prices offset the yen's safe-haven status due to Japan's status as a net oil importer." — verified via https://www.blackwellglobal.com/the-impact-of-geopolitical-risks-on-the-forex-market/ on 2026-05-09
• "The CHF gained almost 13% against the US dollar in 2025 and extended those gains into 2026, hitting an 11-year high against the greenback." — verified via https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/13/safe-haven-currency-swiss-franc-yen-dollar-switzerland-usd-dxy-trump.html on 2026-05-09
• "The US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and China reduced tariffs on US products to 10% as part of a May 2025 trade truce." — verified via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war on 2026-05-09
• "Year-to-date as of early April 2026, the CNY has been one of the notable outperformers against the USD, gaining approximately 2.3%." — verified via https://think.ing.com/articles/cny-at-a-glance-chinas-yuan-moves-into-our-bullish-scenario/ on 2026-05-09
• "XM Group's EU entity, Trading Point of Financial Instruments Ltd, is regulated by CySEC under license number 120/10." — verified via https://www.xm.com/regulation on 2026-05-09
• "XM Group's Australian entity, Trading Point of Financial Instruments Pty Ltd, is regulated by ASIC under AFSL 443670." — verified via https://issuu.com/xm_blog/docs/xm_global/s/83028227 on 2026-05-09
• "XM Global Limited is regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of Belize under license number 000261/106." — verified via https://olxforex.com/en/news/view/all-xm-licenses-with-images-and-links-to-regulatory-and-supervisory-authorities-342591 on 2026-05-09
• "XM offers a minimum deposit of 5 USD equivalent for Standard, Ultra Low, and Micro account types." — verified via https://www.daytrading.com/xm on 2026-05-09
• "XM offers leverage up to 1:1000 depending on the regulatory entity and financial instrument traded." — verified via https://panfinance.net/xm-broker-review-2026/ on 2026-05-09
• "XM Group has executed over 11.7 billion trades without requotes or rejections, with 99.4% of all trades executed in under one second." — verified via https://panfinance.net/xm-broker-review-2026/ on 2026-05-09
• "XM's Standard account has EUR/USD spreads from 1.6 pips; the Ultra Low account offers spreads from 0.8 pips." — verified via https://www.fxleaders.com/forex-brokers/forex-brokers-review/xm-review/minimum-deposit/ on 2026-05-09
• "IC Markets offers EUR/USD raw spreads averaging approximately 0.02–0.06 pips on its cTrader Raw account, with execution averaging under 40 milliseconds." — verified via https://www.fxempire.com/brokers/compare/icmarkets-vs-pepperstone on 2026-05-09
• "Pepperstone is founded in 2010 and regulated by CySEC, FCA, ASIC, and BaFin among other jurisdictions." — verified via https://www.fxempire.com/brokers/compare/icmarkets-vs-pepperstone on 2026-05-09
• "The IMF's reference forecast assumes a 19% increase in energy commodity prices in 2026, pushing global headline inflation to 4.4%." — verified via https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/04/14/war-darkens-global-economic-outlook-and-reshapes-policy-priorities on 2026-05-09
• "The energy sector has been the top-performing sector in 2026 year-to-date, gaining around 40%, driven by the surge in oil prices." — verified via https://www.kitces.com/blog/charts-data-markets-q1-2026-geopolitical-conflict-war-oil-prices-us-tariffs-inflation-clearnomics/ on 2026-05-09
• "Gold crossed $3,000/oz in 2025 and has traded above that level through early 2026." — verified via https://www.allratestoday.com/blog/safe-haven-currencies-2026/ on 2026-05-09

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